NONYG
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Giants win 5,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Saints 26th (2.9).
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,700 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 1.4 points stronger.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · NYG n/a | NO 47% · NYG 53% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +113 · NYG -113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 24, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 16 and NYG by 18.
Side by side
| NO | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | NO 34 @ NYG 27 | NO | NO -1.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | NYG 14 @ NO 26 | NO | NO -1.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | NO 14 @ NYG 11 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | NYG 6 @ NO 24 | NO | NO -6 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | NYG 27 @ NO 21 | NYG | NO -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away