NYGNO
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,410 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Saints 26th (2.9).
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Giants in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · NO n/a | NYG 44% · NO 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +127 · NO -127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 24, NYG 22.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 14 and NO by 18.
Side by side
| NYG | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | NO 34 @ NYG 27 | NO | NO -1.5 |
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | NYG 14 @ NO 26 | NO | NO -1.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | NO 14 @ NYG 11 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | NYG 6 @ NO 24 | NO | NO -6 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | NYG 27 @ NO 21 | NYG | NO -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away