NOPHI
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Simulation: Eagles win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Eagles running game (23rd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Saints 28th (-0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Saints in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.2 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · PHI n/a | NO 44% · PHI 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +125 · PHI -125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 14 and PHI by 18.
Side by side
| NO | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | PHI 15 @ NO 12 | PHI | NO -2.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | NO 20 @ PHI 10 | NO | PHI -5.5 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | NO 29 @ PHI 40 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | NO 21 @ PHI 24 | PHI | NO -7.5 |
| 2019-01-13 | 2018 Divisional | PHI 14 @ NO 20 | NO | NO -8.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away