PHINO
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,610 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 1.4 points stronger.
- Eagles running game (23rd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 15 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Saints 28th (-0.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.2 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · NO n/a | PHI 46% · NO 54% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +117 · NO -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 23, PHI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 15 and NO by 18.
Side by side
| PHI | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | PHI 15 @ NO 12 | PHI | NO -2.5 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | NO 20 @ PHI 10 | NO | PHI -5.5 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | NO 29 @ PHI 40 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | NO 21 @ PHI 24 | PHI | NO -7.5 |
| 2019-01-13 | 2018 Divisional | PHI 14 @ NO 20 | NO | NO -8.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away