NOPIT
New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Saints -3.0.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Saints 28th (-0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,260 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 10 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.5 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · PIT n/a | NO 33% · PIT 67% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +207 · PIT -207 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 10 and PIT by 22.
Side by side
| NO | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | PIT 16 @ NO 10 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | NO 10 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -1 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | PIT 28 @ NO 31 | NO | NO -6.5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | NO 35 @ PIT 32 | NO | PIT -3.5 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | PIT 10 @ NO 20 | NO | NO -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away