PITNO
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Saints -3.0.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 2.0 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Saints 28th (-0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 14 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.5 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · NO n/a | PIT 58% · NO 42% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -140 · NO +140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 21, PIT 23.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 19 and NO by 14.
Side by side
| PIT | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | PIT 16 @ NO 10 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | NO 10 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -1 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | PIT 28 @ NO 31 | NO | NO -6.5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | NO 35 @ PIT 32 | NO | PIT -3.5 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | PIT 10 @ NO 20 | NO | NO -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away