NOSEA
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 4.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Saints -3.0.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,100 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 6 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Seahawks 23rd (66.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -9.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · SEA n/a | NO 21% · SEA 79% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +375 · SEA -375 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, NO 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 6 and SEA by 27.
Side by side
| NO | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | NO 13 @ SEA 44 | SEA | SEA -7.5 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | SEA 32 @ NO 39 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2021-10-25 | 2021 Wk 7 | NO 13 @ SEA 10 | NO | NO -6 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | NO 33 @ SEA 27 | NO | SEA -5 |
| 2016-10-30 | 2016 Wk 8 | SEA 20 @ NO 25 | NO | SEA -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away