SEANO
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 4.6 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Saints -3.0.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,700 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · NO n/a | SEA 73% · NO 27% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -271 · NO +271 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 19, SEA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 24 and NO by 9.
Side by side
| SEA | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | NO 13 @ SEA 44 | SEA | SEA -7.5 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | SEA 32 @ NO 39 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2021-10-25 | 2021 Wk 7 | NO 13 @ SEA 10 | NO | NO -6 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | NO 33 @ SEA 27 | NO | SEA -5 |
| 2016-10-30 | 2016 Wk 8 | SEA 20 @ NO 25 | NO | SEA -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away