NOSF
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 3.4 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to 49ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,350 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 7 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · SF n/a | NO 24% · SF 76% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +326 · SF -326 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 29, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 7 and SF by 26.
Side by side
| NO | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | SF 26 @ NO 21 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | NO 0 @ SF 13 | SF | SF -9.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | SF 13 @ NO 27 | NO | NO -9.5 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | SF 48 @ NO 46 | SF | NO -1 |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 Wk 9 | NO 41 @ SF 23 | NO | NO -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away