SFNO
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 3.4 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: 49ers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · NO n/a | SF 70% · NO 30% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -229 · NO +229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 21, SF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 23 and NO by 10.
Side by side
| SF | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | SF 26 @ NO 21 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | NO 0 @ SF 13 | SF | SF -9.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | SF 13 @ NO 27 | NO | NO -9.5 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | SF 48 @ NO 46 | SF | NO -1 |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 Wk 9 | NO 41 @ SF 23 | NO | NO -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away