NYGPHI
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 2.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Eagles win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Eagles -10.0.
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Eagles 31st (2.0).
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Giants in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 43 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · PHI n/a | NYG 42% · PHI 57% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +135 · PHI -135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 14 and PHI by 20.
Side by side
| NYG | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | NYG 20 @ PHI 38 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2025-10-09 | 2025 Wk 6 | PHI 17 @ NYG 34 | NYG | PHI -7 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | NYG 13 @ PHI 20 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | PHI 28 @ NYG 3 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | PHI 10 @ NYG 27 | NYG | PHI -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away