PHINYG
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Eagles -10.0.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Eagles 31st (2.0).
- Point differential per game: Giants rank 17th (+0.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Giants in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 2.7 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,740 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Giants lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 43 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · NYG n/a | PHI 47% · NYG 53% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +111 · NYG -111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 21, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 16 and NYG by 17.
Side by side
| PHI | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | NYG 20 @ PHI 38 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2025-10-09 | 2025 Wk 6 | PHI 17 @ NYG 34 | NYG | PHI -7 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | NYG 13 @ PHI 20 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | PHI 28 @ NYG 3 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2023 Wk 18 | PHI 10 @ NYG 27 | NYG | PHI -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away