NYGSF
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,840 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Giants 17th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,160 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -9.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · SF n/a | NYG 22% · SF 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +362 · SF -362 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 28, NYG 19.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 7 and SF by 27.
Side by side
| NYG | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 6-1 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | SF 34 @ NYG 24 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 2023-09-21 | 2023 Wk 3 | NYG 12 @ SF 30 | SF | SF -10.5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | SF 36 @ NYG 9 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2018-11-12 | 2018 Wk 10 | NYG 27 @ SF 23 | NYG | SF -3 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | NYG 21 @ SF 31 | SF | NYG -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away