SFNYG
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to 49ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,860 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · NYG n/a | SF 71% · NYG 29% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -249 · NYG +249 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 20, SF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 24 and NYG by 10.
Side by side
| SF | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | SF 34 @ NYG 24 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 2023-09-21 | 2023 Wk 3 | NYG 12 @ SF 30 | SF | SF -10.5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | SF 36 @ NYG 9 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2018-11-12 | 2018 Wk 10 | NYG 27 @ SF 23 | NYG | SF -3 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | NYG 21 @ SF 31 | SF | NYG -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away