NYJPIT
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 2.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Jets -1.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Jets 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,190 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 10 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Steelers 14th (7.0%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · PIT n/a | NYJ 32% · PIT 68% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +213 · PIT -213 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 23, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 10 and PIT by 23.
Side by side
| NYJ | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | PIT 34 @ NYJ 32 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | NYJ 15 @ PIT 37 | PIT | NYJ -3 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | NYJ 24 @ PIT 20 | NYJ | PIT -3 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | PIT 10 @ NYJ 16 | NYJ | PIT -3 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | NYJ 13 @ PIT 31 | PIT | PIT -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away