PITNYJ
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 2.7 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Jets -1.7.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Jets 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,920 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Steelers 14th (7.0%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · NYJ n/a | PIT 61% · NYJ 39% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -155 · NYJ +155 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 20, PIT 22.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 19 and NYJ by 14.
Side by side
| PIT | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | PIT 34 @ NYJ 32 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | NYJ 15 @ PIT 37 | PIT | NYJ -3 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | NYJ 24 @ PIT 20 | NYJ | PIT -3 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | PIT 10 @ NYJ 16 | NYJ | PIT -3 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | NYJ 13 @ PIT 31 | PIT | PIT -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away