NYJSEA
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
81% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 81% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Travel: Jets cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Jets win 1,910 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 6 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -10.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · SEA n/a | NYJ 19% · SEA 81% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +423 · SEA -423 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 26, NYJ 16.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 6 and SEA by 27.
Side by side
| NYJ | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | SEA 26 @ NYJ 21 | SEA | NYJ -1 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | NYJ 6 @ SEA 23 | SEA | NYJ -1 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | NYJ 3 @ SEA 40 | SEA | SEA -16.5 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | SEA 27 @ NYJ 17 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2012-11-11 | 2012 Wk 10 | NYJ 7 @ SEA 28 | SEA | SEA -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away