SEANYJ
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.4 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Jets 21st (-1.9).
- Efficiency (EPA per play): worth about 0.5 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,490 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -7.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · NYJ n/a | SEA 75% · NYJ 25% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -301 · NYJ +301 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 17, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 24 and NYJ by 8.
Side by side
| SEA | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | SEA 26 @ NYJ 21 | SEA | NYJ -1 |
| 2023-01-01 | 2022 Wk 17 | NYJ 6 @ SEA 23 | SEA | NYJ -1 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | NYJ 3 @ SEA 40 | SEA | SEA -16.5 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | SEA 27 @ NYJ 17 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2012-11-11 | 2012 Wk 10 | NYJ 7 @ SEA 28 | SEA | SEA -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away