NYJTEN
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jets about 1.7 points stronger.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Simulation: Jets win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Jets in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jets rank 21st (-1.9), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 14 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Jets 26th (69.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.5 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · TEN n/a | NYJ 56% · TEN 44% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ -128 · TEN +128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, NYJ 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 18 and TEN by 14.
Side by side
| NYJ | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-6 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | NYJ 23 @ TEN 10 | NYJ | TEN -1.5 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | NYJ 24 @ TEN 17 | NYJ | NYJ -3.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | TEN 24 @ NYJ 27 | NYJ | TEN -5.5 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | NYJ 22 @ TEN 26 | TEN | TEN -10.5 |
| 2015-12-13 | 2015 Wk 14 | TEN 8 @ NYJ 30 | NYJ | NYJ -8 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away