TENNYJ
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Simulation: Jets win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jets about 1.7 points stronger.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Jets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 11 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Jets 26th (69.0).
- Weak spot: Jets rank 27th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.14).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.5 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · NYJ n/a | TEN 34% · NYJ 66% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +190 · NYJ -190 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 23, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 11 and NYJ by 21.
Side by side
| TEN | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | NYJ 23 @ TEN 10 | NYJ | TEN -1.5 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | NYJ 24 @ TEN 17 | NYJ | NYJ -3.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | TEN 24 @ NYJ 27 | NYJ | TEN -5.5 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | NYJ 22 @ TEN 26 | TEN | TEN -10.5 |
| 2015-12-13 | 2015 Wk 14 | TEN 8 @ NYJ 30 | NYJ | NYJ -8 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away