NYJWAS
New York Jets @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Commanders win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Jets 11th (+0.4).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Strength: Commanders rank 2nd in turnover margin per game (+1.0).
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Commanders -7.7.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Commanders 23rd (4.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Commanders lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · WAS n/a | NYJ 48% · WAS 52% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +109 · WAS -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 23, NYJ 22.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 15 and WAS by 18.
Side by side
| NYJ | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | WAS 28 @ NYJ 30 | NYJ | NYJ -3 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | NYJ 34 @ WAS 17 | NYJ | WAS -1 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | WAS 20 @ NYJ 34 | NYJ | NYJ -7.5 |
| 2011-12-04 | 2011 Wk 13 | NYJ 34 @ WAS 19 | NYJ | NYJ -3 |
| 2007-11-04 | 2007 Wk 9 | WAS 23 @ NYJ 20 | WAS | WAS -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away