WASNYJ
Washington Commanders @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Simulation: Jets win 5,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Commanders -7.7.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Commanders 23rd (4.8%).
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 4,320 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Jets 11th (+0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 14 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Jets 27th (9.2%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Jets 23rd (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · NYJ n/a | WAS 43% · NYJ 57% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +131 · NYJ -131 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 24, WAS 21.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 14 and NYJ by 19.
Side by side
| WAS | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | WAS 28 @ NYJ 30 | NYJ | NYJ -3 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | NYJ 34 @ WAS 17 | NYJ | WAS -1 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | WAS 20 @ NYJ 34 | NYJ | NYJ -7.5 |
| 2011-12-04 | 2011 Wk 13 | NYJ 34 @ WAS 19 | NYJ | NYJ -3 |
| 2007-11-04 | 2007 Wk 9 | WAS 23 @ NYJ 20 | WAS | WAS -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away