PHISEA
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.2 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Eagles -10.0.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Eagles win 1,950 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Seahawks rank 28th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -9.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.8 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · SEA n/a | PHI 20% · SEA 80% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +414 · SEA -414 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 26, PHI 16.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 6 and SEA by 27.
Side by side
| PHI | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-18 | 2023 Wk 15 | PHI 17 @ SEA 20 | SEA | PHI -5 |
| 2020-11-30 | 2020 Wk 12 | SEA 23 @ PHI 17 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2020-01-05 | 2019 Wild Card | SEA 17 @ PHI 9 | SEA | PHI -1 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | SEA 17 @ PHI 9 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | PHI 10 @ SEA 24 | SEA | PHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away