SEAPHI
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.3 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Eagles -10.0.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 2,820 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.8 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · PHI n/a | SEA 72% · PHI 28% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -255 · PHI +255 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 17, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 24 and PHI by 10.
Side by side
| SEA | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-18 | 2023 Wk 15 | PHI 17 @ SEA 20 | SEA | PHI -5 |
| 2020-11-30 | 2020 Wk 12 | SEA 23 @ PHI 17 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2020-01-05 | 2019 Wild Card | SEA 17 @ PHI 9 | SEA | PHI -1 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | SEA 17 @ PHI 9 | SEA | SEA -1 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | PHI 10 @ SEA 24 | SEA | PHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away