PHISF
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Eagles win 2,460 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 7 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), 49ers 30th (66.7%).
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -8.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.8 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · SF n/a | PHI 25% · SF 75% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +307 · SF -307 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 27, PHI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 7 and SF by 25.
Side by side
| PHI | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | 2025 Wild Card | SF 23 @ PHI 19 | SF | PHI -6 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | SF 42 @ PHI 19 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2023-01-29 | 2022 Conf. title | SF 7 @ PHI 31 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | SF 17 @ PHI 11 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | PHI 25 @ SF 20 | PHI | SF -8.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away