SFPHI
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.8 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · PHI n/a | SF 70% · PHI 30% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -229 · PHI +229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, SF 25.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 23 and PHI by 10.
Side by side
| SF | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | 2025 Wild Card | SF 23 @ PHI 19 | SF | PHI -6 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | SF 42 @ PHI 19 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2023-01-29 | 2022 Conf. title | SF 7 @ PHI 31 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | SF 17 @ PHI 11 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | PHI 25 @ SF 20 | PHI | SF -8.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away