PITTEN
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 4.4 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Titans -6.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Steelers win 7,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,950 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.8 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · TEN n/a | PIT 70% · TEN 30% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -239 · TEN +239 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, PIT 23.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 23 and TEN by 10.
Side by side
| PIT | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-6 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-02 | 2023 Wk 9 | TEN 16 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -3.5 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | TEN 13 @ PIT 19 | PIT | PIT -1 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | PIT 27 @ TEN 24 | PIT | TEN -1 |
| 2017-11-16 | 2017 Wk 11 | TEN 17 @ PIT 40 | PIT | PIT -7 |
| 2014-11-17 | 2014 Wk 11 | PIT 27 @ TEN 24 | PIT | PIT -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away