TENPIT
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 4.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Titans -6.7.
- Simulation: Steelers win 7,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,170 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -8.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.8 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · PIT n/a | TEN 22% · PIT 78% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +360 · PIT -360 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, TEN 16.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 7 and PIT by 26.
Side by side
| TEN | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-02 | 2023 Wk 9 | TEN 16 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -3.5 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | TEN 13 @ PIT 19 | PIT | PIT -1 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | PIT 27 @ TEN 24 | PIT | TEN -1 |
| 2017-11-16 | 2017 Wk 11 | TEN 17 @ PIT 40 | PIT | PIT -7 |
| 2014-11-17 | 2014 Wk 11 | PIT 27 @ TEN 24 | PIT | PIT -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away