PITWAS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Commanders -7.7.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 2.6 points stronger.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Steelers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,710 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 13 or more.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · WAS n/a | PIT 63% · WAS 37% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -170 · WAS +170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 20, PIT 24.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 20 and WAS by 13.
Side by side
| PIT | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | PIT 28 @ WAS 27 | PIT | WAS -1.5 |
| 2020-12-07 | 2020 Wk 13 | WAS 23 @ PIT 17 | WAS | PIT -5.5 |
| 2016-09-12 | 2016 Wk 1 | PIT 38 @ WAS 16 | PIT | PIT -2.5 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | WAS 12 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -4.5 |
| 2008-11-03 | 2008 Wk 9 | PIT 23 @ WAS 6 | PIT | WAS -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away