WASPIT
Washington Commanders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Commanders -7.7.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 2.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Steelers win 7,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 10 or more.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · PIT n/a | WAS 29% · PIT 71% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +242 · PIT -242 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 25, WAS 19.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 10 and PIT by 24.
Side by side
| WAS | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | PIT 28 @ WAS 27 | PIT | WAS -1.5 |
| 2020-12-07 | 2020 Wk 13 | WAS 23 @ PIT 17 | WAS | PIT -5.5 |
| 2016-09-12 | 2016 Wk 1 | PIT 38 @ WAS 16 | PIT | PIT -2.5 |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Wk 8 | WAS 12 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -4.5 |
| 2008-11-03 | 2008 Wk 9 | PIT 23 @ WAS 6 | PIT | WAS -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away