SEATB
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 4.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Seahawks rank 17th (3.6), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Buccaneers 18th (6.1%).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Seahawks +3.7.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,390 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · TB n/a | SEA 66% · TB 34% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -195 · TB +195 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 20, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 21 and TB by 11.
Side by side
| SEA | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | TB 38 @ SEA 35 | TB | SEA -3.5 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | SEA 16 @ TB 21 | TB | TB -2.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | TB 34 @ SEA 40 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016 Wk 12 | SEA 5 @ TB 14 | TB | SEA -5 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | TB 24 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -16 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away