TBSEA
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Travel: Buccaneers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Seahawks +3.7.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 2,590 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 8 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · SEA n/a | TB 26% · SEA 74% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +287 · SEA -287 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 26, TB 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 8 and SEA by 24.
Side by side
| TB | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | TB 38 @ SEA 35 | TB | SEA -3.5 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | SEA 16 @ TB 21 | TB | TB -2.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | TB 34 @ SEA 40 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016 Wk 12 | SEA 5 @ TB 14 | TB | SEA -5 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | TB 24 @ SEA 27 | SEA | SEA -16 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away