SEATEN
Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
83% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 83% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 7.1 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Titans -6.7.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,720 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -10.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.5 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · TEN n/a | SEA 83% · TEN 17% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -481 · TEN +481 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 14, SEA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 28 and TEN by 5.
Side by side
| SEA | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-6 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | SEA 30 @ TEN 24 | SEA | SEA -12.5 |
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | SEA 20 @ TEN 17 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | TEN 33 @ SEA 30 | TEN | SEA -6.5 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | SEA 27 @ TEN 33 | TEN | TEN -2 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | TEN 13 @ SEA 20 | SEA | SEA -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away