TENSEA
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
88% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 88% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 7.0 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Titans -6.7.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,150 of 10,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 2 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Seahawks 23rd (66.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -13.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.5 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · SEA n/a | TEN 12% · SEA 88% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +769 · SEA -769 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, TEN 13.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 2 and SEA by 31.
Side by side
| TEN | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | SEA 30 @ TEN 24 | SEA | SEA -12.5 |
| 2023-12-24 | 2023 Wk 16 | SEA 20 @ TEN 17 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | TEN 33 @ SEA 30 | TEN | SEA -6.5 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | SEA 27 @ TEN 33 | TEN | TEN -2 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | TEN 13 @ SEA 20 | SEA | SEA -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away