SEAWAS
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.3 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Commanders -7.7.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,360 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · WAS n/a | SEA 76% · WAS 24% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -325 · WAS +325 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 17, SEA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 25 and WAS by 8.
Side by side
| SEA | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | SEA 31 @ WAS 33 | WAS | SEA -8.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | SEA 38 @ WAS 14 | SEA | SEA -2.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | WAS 26 @ SEA 29 | SEA | SEA -6 |
| 2021-11-29 | 2021 Wk 12 | SEA 15 @ WAS 17 | WAS | SEA -1 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | SEA 20 @ WAS 15 | SEA | SEA -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away