WASSEA
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
83% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 83% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.2 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Commanders -7.7.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 1,740 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 5 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -11.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · SEA n/a | WAS 17% · SEA 83% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +474 · SEA -474 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, WAS 17.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 5 and SEA by 28.
Side by side
| WAS | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | SEA 31 @ WAS 33 | WAS | SEA -8.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | SEA 38 @ WAS 14 | SEA | SEA -2.5 |
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | WAS 26 @ SEA 29 | SEA | SEA -6 |
| 2021-11-29 | 2021 Wk 12 | SEA 15 @ WAS 17 | WAS | SEA -1 |
| 2020-12-20 | 2020 Wk 15 | SEA 20 @ WAS 15 | SEA | SEA -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away