SFTB
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 3.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Buccaneers 12th (+1.6).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, 49ers +0.0.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,720 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · TB n/a | SF 63% · TB 37% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -169 · TB +169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 22, SF 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 20 and TB by 13.
Side by side
| SF | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | SF 19 @ TB 30 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | SF 23 @ TB 20 | SF | SF -6.5 |
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | TB 14 @ SF 27 | SF | SF -13.5 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2022 Wk 14 | TB 7 @ SF 35 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | SF 31 @ TB 17 | SF | TB -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away