TBSF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 2.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Travel: Buccaneers cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, 49ers +0.0.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 10 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · SF n/a | TB 30% · SF 70% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +229 · SF -229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 27, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 10 and SF by 24.
Side by side
| TB | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | SF 19 @ TB 30 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | SF 23 @ TB 20 | SF | SF -6.5 |
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | TB 14 @ SF 27 | SF | SF -13.5 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2022 Wk 14 | TB 7 @ SF 35 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | SF 31 @ TB 17 | SF | TB -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away