SFTEN
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 5.9 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 8,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: 49ers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,990 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 6 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · TEN n/a | SF 80% · TEN 20% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -402 · TEN +402 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, SF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 27 and TEN by 6.
Side by side
| SF | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 1-6 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | TEN 24 @ SF 37 | SF | SF -12.5 |
| 2021-12-23 | 2021 Wk 16 | SF 17 @ TEN 20 | TEN | SF -3.5 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | TEN 23 @ SF 25 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 2013-10-20 | 2013 Wk 7 | SF 31 @ TEN 17 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2009-11-08 | 2009 Wk 9 | TEN 34 @ SF 27 | TEN | SF -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away