TENSF
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
86% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 86% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 5.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: 49ers win 8,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,430 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 3 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -12.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · SF n/a | TEN 14% · SF 86% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +597 · SF -597 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 28, TEN 16.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 3 and SF by 30.
Side by side
| TEN | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 6-1 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | TEN 24 @ SF 37 | SF | SF -12.5 |
| 2021-12-23 | 2021 Wk 16 | SF 17 @ TEN 20 | TEN | SF -3.5 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | TEN 23 @ SF 25 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 2013-10-20 | 2013 Wk 7 | SF 31 @ TEN 17 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2009-11-08 | 2009 Wk 9 | TEN 34 @ SF 27 | TEN | SF -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away