SFWAS
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.1 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,680 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · WAS n/a | SF 73% · WAS 27% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -273 · WAS +273 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 21, SF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 24 and WAS by 9.
Side by side
| SF | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 2026 Wk 6 | WAS 17 @ SF 23 | SF | SF -7.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | SF 27 @ WAS 10 | SF | SF -14 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | WAS 20 @ SF 37 | SF | SF -6.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | WAS 23 @ SF 15 | WAS | SF -3 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | SF 9 @ WAS 0 | SF | SF -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away