WASSF
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.0 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: 49ers win 8,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 1,980 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -9.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · SF n/a | WAS 20% · SF 80% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +405 · SF -405 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 30, WAS 20.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 6 and SF by 27.
Side by side
| WAS | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 6-1 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 2026 Wk 6 | WAS 17 @ SF 23 | SF | SF -7.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | SF 27 @ WAS 10 | SF | SF -14 |
| 2022-12-24 | 2022 Wk 16 | WAS 20 @ SF 37 | SF | SF -6.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | WAS 23 @ SF 15 | WAS | SF -3 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | SF 9 @ WAS 0 | SF | SF -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away