TBWAS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Commanders -7.7.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 4,170 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Buccaneers 14th (+0.1).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · WAS n/a | TB 58% · WAS 42% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -140 · WAS +140 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 23, TB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 19 and WAS by 14.
Side by side
| TB | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | 2024 Wild Card | WAS 23 @ TB 20 | WAS | TB -3 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | WAS 20 @ TB 37 | TB | TB -4 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | TB 19 @ WAS 29 | WAS | TB -10 |
| 2021-01-09 | 2020 Wild Card | TB 31 @ WAS 23 | TB | TB -10 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | WAS 16 @ TB 3 | WAS | TB -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away