WASTB
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Commanders -7.7.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,330 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Buccaneers 14th (+0.1).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 11 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · TB n/a | WAS 33% · TB 67% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +201 · TB -201 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 26, WAS 20.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 11 and TB by 22.
Side by side
| WAS | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | 2024 Wild Card | WAS 23 @ TB 20 | WAS | TB -3 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | WAS 20 @ TB 37 | TB | TB -4 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | TB 19 @ WAS 29 | WAS | TB -10 |
| 2021-01-09 | 2020 Wild Card | TB 31 @ WAS 23 | TB | TB -10 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | WAS 16 @ TB 3 | WAS | TB -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away