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OTT

Senators @ Sabres

NHL · · KeyBank Center

BUF

Game day

Puck drop

Warmups

Our pick
BUFBuffalo Sabres
54% to win
ModelOTT 46%BUF 54%
MarketOTT 46%BUF 54%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

The line

MarketAZMango
MoneylineOTT +110
BUF -130		OTT +119
BUF -119 fair
Puck lineBUF -1.5 (+180)BUF covers 34%
Total goals6.56.5 · over 50%

Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.

5,000 simulated games

Expected goals
BUF 3.4, OTT 3.1
8 in 10 games
OTT by 3 to BUF by 3
Tied after 60 minutes
22%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Sabres can win

  1. In goal: Colten Ellis (Sabres expected starter, 0.880 save percentage in 5 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Samuel Ersson (Senators expected starter, 0.866 save percentage in 4 starts), worth about 0.50 goals a game in our ratings.
  2. Home ice: Sabres play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
  3. Shot share (their shots of all shots on goal): Sabres 11th (51.0%), Senators 23rd (48.5%) of 32.
  4. Team matchup: where Sabres can take advantage. Their power play (19th of 32) meets the Senators discipline (31st), so look for them to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out.
  5. Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Tage Thompson (Sabres: 10 G, 7 A in 14 games, 19 min a night) has the edge on Tim Stützle (Senators: 9 G, 12 A in 16 games, 22 min a night).
  6. The betting market agrees: Sabres 54% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
  7. Simulation: Sabres win 2,715 of 5,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Sabres may not

  1. Goal differential per game: Senators 17th (+0.06), Sabres 24th (-0.43) of 32.
  2. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Sabres lose by 3 goals or more.
  3. Weak spot: Sabres rank 29th of 32 in team save percentage (0.876).
  4. Weak spot: Sabres rank 28th of 32 in faceoffs won (52.3%).
  5. Team matchup: where Senators can push back. Their finishing (8th of 32) meets the Sabres goaltending (29th), so look for them to bury the chances they get. And their scoring (15th of 32) meets the Sabres goal prevention (25th): a chance to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up.
  6. Star matchup: On defense, Jake Sanderson (Senators: 1 G, 9 A in 8 games, 22 min a night) has the edge on Rasmus Dahlin (Sabres: 2 G, 7 A in 11 games, 25 min a night); at wing, Drake Batherson (Senators: 9 G, 9 A in 16 games, 18 min a night) has the edge on Jack Quinn (Sabres: 8 G, 6 A in 14 games, 19 min a night).
  7. Upset odds: Senators win 2,285 of 5,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. About 22% of the simulations went past regulation.

In goal

OTT Senators

  • ExpectedSamuel Ersson0.866 save %, 4 starts, -5.5 goals saved above average

BUF Sabres

  • ExpectedColten Ellis0.880 save %, 5 starts, -2.9 goals saved above average

"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

Who's out

OTT Senators

  • OutLinus Ullmark Ginjured reserve · ESPN team rosters, Oct 22, 2026

BUF Sabres

  • QuestionableJiri Kulich Cday-to-day · ESPN team rosters, Nov 3, 2026

Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.

Side by sideStandings

OTTBUF
9-6-1Record7-4-3
+0.06 17Goal differential/game-0.43 24
3.25 15Goals per game3.07 19
3.19 15Goals allowed3.50 25
48.5% 23Shot share51.0% 11
25.6 25Shots per game28.1 11
27.1 15Shots allowed27.0 14
12.7% 8Shooting %10.9% 20
0.896 11Save %0.876 29
0.50 23Power-play goals/game0.57 19
13.2 31Penalty minutes/game10.0 20
56.2% 19Faceoffs won52.3% 28
-0.07 26Strength of schedule-0.05 24

Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).

Last 5 meetings

  • Sabres 1 @ Senators 4Apr 2, 2026
  • Sabres 3 @ Senators 2Dec 23, 2025 · OT
  • Senators 4 @ Sabres 8Oct 15, 2025
  • Sabres 5 @ Senators 2Apr 1, 2025
  • Senators 2 @ Sabres 3Mar 25, 2025

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

What if?

Senators46%
54%Sabres

Based on market line + adjustments. How it works

This matchup on any day (power ratings only)

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