Game day
Puck dropWho's playing
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CGY +120 SEA -142 | CGY +129 SEA -129 fair |
| Puck line | SEA -1.5 (+170) | SEA covers 35% |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6.5 · over 49% |
Line: , ESPN. Odds move; check a book before acting. In hockey the moneyline carries the market's view; the puck line is almost always 1.5 goals, with the price doing the work.
5,000 simulated games
- Expected goals
- SEA 3.5, CGY 3.0
- 8 in 10 games
- CGY by 3 to SEA by 3
- Tied after 60 minutes
- 23%
Advantages Why Kraken can win
- In goal: Philipp Grubauer (Kraken expected starter, 0.886 save percentage in 8 starts) has been the better goalie lately than Dustin Wolf (Flames expected starter, 0.862 save percentage in 7 starts), worth about 0.24 goals a game in our ratings.
- Home ice: Kraken play at home, with the last line change; home teams win about 54% of NHL games.
- Goal differential per game: Kraken 18th (+0.00), Flames 28th (-1.00) of 32.
- Team matchup: where Kraken can take advantage. Their finishing (2nd of 32) meets the Flames goaltending (26th), so look for them to bury the chances they get. And their scoring (5th of 32) meets the Flames goal prevention (27th): a chance to turn chances into goals against a team that gives them up.
- Star matchup: In goal, Philipp Grubauer (Kraken: 0.886 save percentage in 8 starts) has the edge on Dustin Wolf (Flames: 0.862 in 7); at center, Frederick Gaudreau (Kraken: 7 G, 3 A in 14 games, 16 min a night) has the edge on Morgan Frost (Flames: 4 G, 5 A in 15 games, 15 min a night).
- The betting market agrees: Kraken 56% to win on the moneyline, after removing the sportsbooks' margin.
- Simulation: Kraken win 2,815 of 5,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Kraken may not
- Shot share (their shots of all shots on goal): Flames 20th (48.6%), Kraken 29th (44.9%) of 32.
- Shot margins: Flames have controlled play better (shots for and against, adjusted for opponents), worth about 0.11 goals to them in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Kraken lose by 3 goals or more.
- Weak spot: Kraken rank 31st of 32 in shots allowed per game (30.79).
- Team matchup: where Flames can push back. Their shot volume (12th of 32) meets the Kraken shot suppression (31st), so look for them to pile up shots and make the goalie work all night. And their power play (13th of 32) meets the Kraken discipline (21st): a chance to cash in on the power plays a penalty-prone team hands out.
- Star matchup: Best skater against best skater, Joel Farabee (Flames: 5 G, 11 A in 15 games, 19 min a night) has the edge on Mackie Samoskevich (Kraken: 6 G, 4 A in 13 games, 16 min a night; filling in for Jared McCann, missed the last 3 games).
- Upset odds: Flames win 2,185 of 5,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. About 23% of the simulations went past regulation.
In goal
CGY Flames
- ExpectedDustin Wolf0.862 save %, 7 starts, -9.4 goals saved above average
SEA Kraken
- ExpectedPhilipp Grubauer0.886 save %, 8 starts, -4.2 goals saved above average
"Confirmed" and "Expected" are ESPN's. Starters are usually named at the morning skate or in warmups; until then we expect the team's usual starter, or the backup on the second night of a back-to-back.
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's out
CGY Flames
- OutDevin Cooley Ginjured reserve · ESPN team rosters, Oct 30, 2026
SEA Kraken
- Sat outJared McCannsat out last game
Regulars who sat out a team's last game count as likely out (box scores). Also checked: who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news. Players out or doubtful are never counted as a strength.
Side by sideStandings
| CGY | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 7-8-0 | Record | 8-5-1 |
| -1.00 28 | Goal differential/game | +0.00 18 |
| 2.53 28 | Goals per game | 3.71 5 |
| 3.53 27 | Goals allowed | 3.71 29 |
| 48.6% 20 | Shot share | 44.9% 29 |
| 28.1 12 | Shots per game | 25.1 27 |
| 29.7 26 | Shots allowed | 30.8 31 |
| 9.0% 31 | Shooting % | 14.8% 2 |
| 0.883 26 | Save % | 0.884 23 |
| 0.73 13 | Power-play goals/game | 0.79 11 |
| 11.4 28 | Penalty minutes/game | 10.1 21 |
| 52.9% 26 | Faceoffs won | 57.1% 12 |
| +0.03 12 | Strength of schedule | +0.01 16 |
Small numbers are ranks among the 32 NHL teams (1 = best). Records are wins, regulation losses and overtime or shootout losses. Strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced, in goals (2026-27 season).
Last 5 meetings
- Kraken 2 @ Flames 6Oct 30, 2026
- Flames 1 @ Kraken 6Oct 4, 2026
- Kraken 6 @ Flames 1Oct 1, 2026
- Flames 1 @ Kraken 4Apr 11, 2026
- Kraken 5 @ Flames 1Jan 5, 2026
Your pick
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What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
What if?
Based on market line + adjustments. How it works
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