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GDL

Guadalajara @ León

Liga MX · · Estadio León

LEO

Guadalajara 8-5-2 · 29 pts · 2nd Liga MX · Form DDWWW
León 6-4-5 · 22 pts · 7th Liga MX · Form DLWDL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
GDLGuadalajara
44% to win

Draw 26% · León 30%

ModelGDL 44%LEO 30%
MarketGDL 44%LEO 30%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 44% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
LEO win+21030% · +236
Draw+25026% · +280
GDL win+11044% · +128
LEO or draw–56%
GDL or draw–70%
HandicapLEO +0.5 (-155)LEO 56%
Total 2.5O -155 · U +105Over 55%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
LEO 1.3, GDL 1.6
Likeliest scores (LEO first)
1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%)
Both teams score
58%
Clean sheet
LEO 20% · GDL 28%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Guadalajara can win

  1. Goal difference: Guadalajara are +0.73 a game this season (1.67 scored, 0.93 conceded); León +0.13.
  2. Form: Guadalajara took 11 points from their last five (D-D-W-W-W), León 5 (D-L-W-D-L).
  3. Defense: Guadalajara concede 0.93 a game, León 1.33.
  4. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Guadalajara about 0.38 goals a game stronger than León before home field.
  5. The table: Guadalajara sit 2nd with 29 points from 15 games, León 7th with 22.
  6. Expected goals: Guadalajara average 1.6 goals in the simulations, León 1.3.
  7. Clean sheet: Guadalajara kept León scoreless in 28% of simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Guadalajara may not

  1. The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Guadalajara to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Fine margins: 64% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: León won 30% of simulated matches. A 44% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

GDL GuadalajaraLEO León
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
2nd, 29 ptsTable7th, 22 pts
1.67Goals for / game1.47
0.93Goals against / game1.33
5.6Shots on target / game5.4
4.2On target against / game4.7
40%Clean sheets27%
5-1-2Home W-D-L4-1-2
3-4-0Away W-D-L2-3-3
D-D-W-W-WLast fiveD-L-W-D-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Mar 18, 2026 · Liga MX Guadalajara 5-0 León
  • Jul 19, 2025 · Liga MX León 1-0 Guadalajara
  • Jan 28, 2025 · Liga MX León 2-1 Guadalajara
  • Sep 18, 2024 · Liga MX Guadalajara 2-0 León
  • Mar 9, 2024 · Liga MX Guadalajara 1-2 León

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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