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PUE

Puebla @ Queretaro

Liga MX · · Estadio Corregidora

QRO

Puebla 4-4-7 · 16 pts · 14th Liga MX · Form DDLLL
Queretaro 6-2-6 · 20 pts · 11th Liga MX · Form WLLLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
QROQuerétaro
52% to win

Draw 25% · Puebla 23%

ModelPUE 23%QRO 52%
MarketPUE 23%QRO 52%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
QRO win-13052% · -109
Draw+27525% · +306
PUE win+30023% · +333
QRO or draw–77%
PUE or draw–48%
HandicapQRO -0.5 (-140)QRO 52%
Total 2.5O -160 · U +110Over 57%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
QRO 1.8, PUE 1.1
Likeliest scores (QRO first)
1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%)
Both teams score
58%
Clean sheet
QRO 32% · PUE 16%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Queretaro can win

  1. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Queretaro about 0.26 goals a game stronger than Puebla before home field.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Expected goals: Queretaro average 1.8 goals in the simulations, Puebla 1.1.
  4. Clean sheet: Queretaro kept Puebla scoreless in 32% of simulated matches.
  5. The betting market agrees: Queretaro 52%, draw 25%, Puebla 23% on DraftKings's odds.
  6. Simulation: Queretaro won 52% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Queretaro may not

  1. The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Queretaro to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Fine margins: 61% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  3. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  4. Upset odds: Puebla won 23% of simulated matches. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

PUE PueblaQRO Queretaro
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
14th, 16 ptsTable11th, 20 pts
1.13Goals for / game1.29
1.53Goals against / game1.50
4.3Shots on target / game4.1
4.5On target against / game4.9
20%Clean sheets29%
1-3-3Home W-D-L2-1-3
3-1-4Away W-D-L4-1-3
D-D-L-L-LLast fiveW-L-L-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Apr 24, 2026 · Liga MX Puebla 1-2 Queretaro
  • Oct 4, 2025 · Liga MX Queretaro 3-1 Puebla
  • Mar 2, 2025 · Liga MX Queretaro 2-0 Puebla
  • Sep 13, 2024 · Liga MX Puebla 2-1 Queretaro
  • Feb 23, 2024 · Liga MX Puebla 0-2 Queretaro

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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