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AME

América @ UNAM

Liga MX · · Estadio Olímpico Universitario

UNAM

América 8-5-2 · 29 pts · 1st Liga MX · Form WWLDD
UNAM 5-5-5 · 20 pts · 10th Liga MX · Form DWLDW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
AMEAmérica
44% to win

Draw 26% · UNAM 31%

ModelAME 44%UNAM 31%
MarketAME 44%UNAM 31%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 44% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
UNAM win+20031% · +226
Draw+26026% · +291
AME win+11044% · +128
UNAM or draw–56%
AME or draw–69%
HandicapUNAM +0.5 (-155)UNAM 56%
Total 2.5O -190 · U +130Over 59%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
UNAM 1.4, AME 1.7
Likeliest scores (UNAM first)
1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%)
Both teams score
62%
Clean sheet
UNAM 18% · AME 26%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why América can win

  1. Goal difference: América are +1.00 a game this season (2.40 scored, 1.40 conceded); UNAM -0.13.
  2. Scoring: América score 2.40 goals a game, UNAM 1.47.
  3. Shots on target: América out-shoot opponents by +2.5 on target a game, UNAM by -0.8. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  4. Home and away: UNAM are 1-4-2 at home, América 5-1-1 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  5. The table: América sit 1st with 29 points from 15 games, UNAM 10th with 20.
  6. Clean sheets: América kept one in 27% of games, UNAM in 7%.
  7. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make América about 0.37 goals a game stronger than UNAM before home field.

Disadvantages Why América may not

  1. The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing América to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Fine margins: 63% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: UNAM won 30% of simulated matches. A 44% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

AME AméricaUNAM UNAM
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
1st, 29 ptsTable10th, 20 pts
2.40Goals for / game1.47
1.40Goals against / game1.60
7.3Shots on target / game3.8
4.9On target against / game4.6
27%Clean sheets7%
3-4-1Home W-D-L1-4-2
5-1-1Away W-D-L4-1-3
W-W-L-D-DLast fiveD-W-L-D-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • May 10, 2026 · Liga MX UNAM 3-3 América
  • May 3, 2026 · Liga MX América 3-3 UNAM
  • Mar 21, 2026 · Liga MX UNAM 1-0 América
  • Sep 27, 2025 · Liga MX América 4-1 UNAM
  • Feb 22, 2025 · Liga MX UNAM 0-2 América

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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