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MTY

Monterrey @ Toluca

Liga MX · · Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

TOL

Monterrey 6-3-5 · 21 pts · 9th Liga MX · Form DWWLD
Toluca 6-6-3 · 24 pts · 5th Liga MX · Form LDDDD

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
TOLToluca
58% to win

Draw 21% · Monterrey 21%

ModelMTY 21%TOL 58%
MarketMTY 21%TOL 58%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
TOL win-16558% · -135
Draw+33021% · +365
MTY win+34021% · +376
TOL or draw–79%
MTY or draw–42%
HandicapTOL -0.5 (-175)TOL 58%
Total 3.5O EVEN · U -145Over 47%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
TOL 2.2, MTY 1.3
Likeliest scores (TOL first)
2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%)
Both teams score
66%
Clean sheet
TOL 27% · MTY 11%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Toluca can win

  1. Goal difference: Toluca are +0.67 a game this season (2.07 scored, 1.40 conceded); Monterrey +0.36.
  2. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Toluca about 0.29 goals a game stronger than Monterrey before home field.
  3. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  4. Expected goals: Toluca average 2.2 goals in the simulations, Monterrey 1.3.
  5. Clean sheet: Toluca kept Monterrey scoreless in 27% of simulated matches.
  6. The betting market agrees: Toluca 58%, draw 21%, Monterrey 21% on DraftKings's odds.
  7. Simulation: Toluca won 57% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Toluca may not

  1. Form: Monterrey took 8 points from their last five (D-W-W-L-D), Toluca 4 (L-D-D-D-D).
  2. The draw: 21% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Toluca to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  3. Fine margins: 55% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: Monterrey won 21% of simulated matches. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

MTY MonterreyTOL Toluca
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
9th, 21 ptsTable5th, 24 pts
1.86Goals for / game2.07
1.50Goals against / game1.40
5.9Shots on target / game6.2
4.4On target against / game4.7
21%Clean sheets27%
4-2-2Home W-D-L3-2-2
2-1-3Away W-D-L3-4-1
D-W-W-L-DLast fiveL-D-D-D-D

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Jan 10, 2026 · Liga MX Monterrey 0-1 Toluca
  • Dec 6, 2025 · Liga MX Toluca 3-2 Monterrey
  • Dec 3, 2025 · Liga MX Monterrey 1-0 Toluca
  • Sep 24, 2025 · Liga MX Toluca 6-2 Monterrey
  • May 10, 2025 · Liga MX Toluca 2-1 Monterrey

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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